Covid-19 - Prepare Yourself!

Chances are, if you get the majority of your information from mainstream news sources, you're being told that the novel coronavirus (now dubbed covid-19) is basically "a bad flu" and not a big deal.  Just wash your hands, or maybe buy some antiviral masks, right?  Maybe you'll have to keep the kids home from school for a couple weeks.  After all, we're much more knowledgeable about disease than we were in 1918 when the Spanish Flu broke out.  We've successfully contained Ebola and Zika, so it's safe to assume that we can contain this virus as well... or so we're being told.

With a 90% mortality rate, Ebola is truly terrifying.  SARS has a mortality rate of about 15% -- still scary, but certainly more survivable.  If we're to believe the official numbers from the Chinese communist government (I don't), the death rate for covid-19 is about 2.5% -- certainly scary, but not the end of the world.  If you get it, you have a 1 in 40 chance of dying from it.  Not something I'd like to gamble my family's health on, but not apocalyptic in the way that Ebola's mortality rate is.

So what's the big deal then?  The problem is that we cannot and will not be able to control the spread of this disease, but we will try, just as China is doing.  It's the attempts being made to control the disease that are doing the most damage, and which will soon affect us all in a big way.

We can't control this disease for a number of reasons.  First of all is that people have been shown to be contagious for weeks before displaying any symptoms -- and some people never develop any symptoms.  That means that perfectly healthy people will be circulating and infecting people without knowing it.  People are even contagious for a couple weeks *after* their symptoms have abated.

In addition to that, the virus appears to be transmissible over long distances through the air, as was evidenced on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship.  Despite passengers being confined to their rooms and the staff taking great precautions, the infection rapidly spread throughout the ship.   Apartment blocks in China appear to have suffered similar fates, as the virus spread through ventilation systems.   Not only does it travel very well, but the virus can remain active on various surfaces for weeks.

Unlike the flu, getting sick with this virus doesn't necessarily make you immune to getting it again, as China is now documenting people who have been infected by it multiple times, with second infections often resulting in heart failure.  The fact that we do not produce sufficient antibodies to ward off recurring infections with this virus also suggests that developing a vaccine for it (which normally takes about a year) will be very difficult.

Another serious problem is that of testing.  Test kits are not widely distributed and available.  The entire state of Hawaii -- which is known to have been visited by people who later tested positive for the virus -- still does not have any test kits -- and won't until at least March.  A reader comment in one article on the NY times website noted that she had recently returned from China, and that her husband soon fell ill as did their son.  Despite this history, she claimed that the hospital they visited refused to test them for the virus.  Even when the test kits are available and used, it appears as if false-negatives are very common.  One doctor in China noted a patient who had been tested six times, with only the last test coming back positive.

Even when the best protective measures are followed, infection is still a regular occurrence.  I cannot find the article now (I believe I came across it a week or two ago), but there were already 2000 medical staff infected with the virus in China. The director of Wuhan's main hospital has already died from it, as did this doctor whom the Chinese government punished for warning of the virus early on.

So even if we can't control the spread, the mortality rate is still pretty low.  Yes, some people will die, and that's terrible, but unavoidable for now.  Those deaths are not what concerns me nearly as much as the effects of our attempts to limit the spread of the virus.

As we can see now, the majority of China is in lock down.  A figure I remember from a week ago (and now undoubtedly outdated) is that 710 million people are now on lockdown -- being confined to their homes by the military and police.  Factories are largely shut down, and travel has been reduced to an absolute bare minimum (though still probably not reduced enough).  Despite these apparently draconian measures, the virus is still spreading rapidly.   In communist China, they're probably expected and thus easier to enforce.   How will people react to them in the US?

So China appears to be coming to the realization that locking everyone in their homes is having a serious effect on their economy, and in some areas has authorized factories to reopen.  In one such case, 210 employees reported to work.  One of them was tested for the virus and found to be positive.  The result?   All 210 employees were moved to a quarantine camp, where they will likely be infected if they weren't already.  New quarantine recommendations are that it should last for at least 24 days. So that factory will be down for a long time, unless they can replace and train an entirely new workforce who will likely suffer the same fate.

The Chinese government has also threatened citizens with jail time if they stay home after being ordered to return to work.  Apparently, many are refusing to return to work despite this threat.  I would not be surprised in the least if governments around the world give up on trying to control the virus, realizing that the cure is worse than the disease, and attempt to restart economic activity for better or worse.

So what happens when factories and businesses shut down for an extended period of time?  All appearances are that this virus will be with us for months at the very least.   Certainly some shut downs will not have a serious effect.  In fact, we would probably benefit from fewer plastic toys and electronic gadgets. The shut-down of factories that manufacture or distribute medical supplies, however, could be a problem.  What about food production?  Will your local utility be able to keep natural gas flowing so you can heat your home?  What about electricity to power the well pumps that feed your city or home water supply?  What if an essential part breaks down and cannot be replaced because the factory that makes it is shut down?  The wonderful efficiency of our modern economy is rife with inter-dependencies, each of which pose great risks in this situation. These direct effects of the virus could be very serious, but they will -- hopefully -- not be long term.

My primary concern with the corona virus is not the direct effect of the disease nor the direct effect of the required industry shut-downs, but the long term effect upon our highly intertwined economies.

There are serious concerns that global debt levels have grown dramatically in recent years, (especially since the 2008 financial crisis) making the global economy extremely vulnerable to shocks.  Covid-19 appears to not just be a potential "pin" that could prick this debt bubble, but rather a machine gun.

Globally, peak oil occurred just before the big financial crisis of 2008 (big surprise there!).  Our central bank has patched the problem over by making sure that credit is available to many businesses, but especially to oil companies.  That was key to the massive growth of the "Saudi America" fracking revolution that dramatically improved oil production in the US , which had previously peaked in 1971 and been in decline ever since.  The problem is that fracked oil is too expensive to produce at a profit, and fracking companies have never made a penny -- even according to our own Energy Information Administration.  Fracking now accounts for 60% of US oil production.  With oil prices already well below their cost of production and heading lower as business and travel restrictions take effect for the corona virus -- how will these companies pay their debts?   They won't.  They'll go bankrupt -- or be bailed out by you and I.  If our money printing can continue indefinitely without destroying the US Dollar, that is.  If our fracking scheme does finally fall flat (and I should note that even our conventional oil production is now in a precarious financial state), US oil production will fall by 60%.  Will they be able to rebuild it after such an economic shock?   Would you invest in it?  How do you think a sudden drop in 60% of our oil production will effect you?  Will your local grocery store still be receiving food?  Will your job survive?

So what's the take-away?  I would prepare yourself to stay at home for at least one month (longer is better, as we have no idea how long this will last).  Store up as much food and water as you can, and make contingencies for the potential loss of utility services. Better yet, start a garden or set up an alternate source of water if you can.  If you require medications, make sure to fill your prescriptions asap and build up a longer term supply if possible.  It may not happen, but I think it's safe to assume that supply chains -- even for essential goods -- will likely fail.

If the virus does strike your family, it would also be useful to have antiviral medications.   Medicines containing elderberry have clinically proven antiviral effects, showing both a significant reduction in both duration and severity of symptoms.  It might not be a bad idea to stock up on books as well. Prepare before the rush, if at all possible, because at some point soon it will become impossible.  Italy went from having a small number of cases to putting entire regions in lockdown, complete with numerous medical staff infected, in just 3 days.  With the Dow flirting with a 1,000 point drop today as the latest headlines slowly sink in, that point may come even sooner than I think.

Here is a page that explains much of what I've said here but is a bit more condensed and probably more readable.

Chris Martenson, (who has a PhD in pathology and understands the disease dynamics very well) has been producing daily videos which summarize the situation as it develops.  He's also exceptionally energy-aware and puts the big picture together much better than most.  Here's his youtube page.